Keynote Address by Dr Ashfaque Hasan Khan on Russian-Ukraine Crisis: Dawn of a New World Order?

Islamabad Wednesday, July 6, 2022 – NUST Institute of Policy Studies (NIPS) organized the keynote address of Dr Ashfaque Hasan Khan on ‘Russian-Ukraine Crisis: Dawn of a new World Order? The session was moderated by Director NIPS, Brigadier (Retd) Amir Yaqub. The event was attended by Principals, faculty and students of NUST present on campus and others joined virtually including Lt Gen Naeem Khalid Lodhi, Dr. Vladimir Kozin, and Ambassador Joshua amongst others.

Dr Ashfaque, Director General NIPS and Principal of School of Social Sciences and Humanities, highlighted the Russian-Ukraine war impacts on the global economy. The war is altering the strategic objectives of nations from geopolitics to geo-economics. He emphasized the unintended consequences of imposing sanctions on Russia as food insecurity has increased substantially in developing countries across Africa and Pakistan cannot escape it. He stated that the Russian Government has started the weaponization of energy resources and has started trade in Russian rubble instead of dollar that has initiated economic and financial war in the race of economic supremacy.

He highlighted that the American foreign policy is to “isolate and bleed Russia to weaken its economy and its defense”. With no option of peace negotiations, the US imposed 4000 sanctions and ban on imports of oil and excluded Russian banks from SWIFT. The credit rating agencies downgraded Russia to ‘selective default’ and closed MNCs in a short period to deepen their isolation. He discussed the aspects of Russian oil exports to OECD, Europe, Asia and China. The increased prices is profiting Russian economy substantially, but impacting the domestic economy negatively. The domestic economy is expected to shrink by 10 percent. He discussed the inability of Europe to ban imports of oil and gas from Russia completely due to lack of infrastructure, long-term existing deals and transport of gas through pipelines, whose substitution will take time and could plunge Europe into a deep recession.

He also explained the performance of Russian rubble as the world’s strongest currency as it bounced back to 55 against a dollar after depreciating to 155 rubble against a dollar after the Russian countermeasure of selling gold at 5000 rubbles which has appreciated its currency and made its economy stronger. He also predicted that Russia’s economy is stabilized due to its export of oil, wheat, crude oil and fertilizers that have instilled billions of dollars in reserves to its economy. Efforts are being made to shift international monetary settlements from dollar to rubble and yuan. The shift has already been instigated and future efforts to conclude BRICS trade deals in local currencies can initiate de-dollarization in the world.

He concluded saying that the world is moving towards new world order where the supremacy of America is challenged by Russia and China and multi-polarity is possible. He stated that Russian-Ukraine war’s fate can be decided in coming winters due to lack of manpower rather than an economic downfall. He mentioned that Russia stands financially and economically unwavering as of now and only when its oligarchs and population move towards strangulation in winters, domestic protests can deviate the path of war. The war is going to cost vulnerable countries globally in terms of wheat shortage and ultimately food insecurity.